September Bitcoin Recap
September 2023 | BITCOIN BLOCKS IN FOCUS
September 2023 - BITCOIN BLOCKS IN FOCUS
In This Month's Issue You Will Find:
Curated Content
Top Trends 2023: 6 Trends To Watch
News Stories: 12
Podcast : 1
Tweets: 3
Books: 1
Not Gonna Make It Events: 3
Market & On-Chain Analysis
Price, Volatility, Market Sentiment Analysis
Network Health
Valuation Models
Top Trends Im Watching
Nation State Level Interest In Bitcoin
Big Tech Integrations Into The Bitcoin Network
Regulatory Headwinds For Access To Bitcoin Products & Services
Bitcoin Market Structure Consolidation
Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity & Utilization Growth
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
News Stories
Marathon Digital Mined an Invalid Block at 809478 on Mainnet | Twitter
Block Report: Bitcoin Survey 2023 | Block XYZ
Coinbase Receives Regulatory Approval to Enable Retail Perpetual Futures | Coinbase Blog
SEC Moves to Delay Decision on Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF into Next Year | The Block
MicroStrategy Acquires Additional 5445 Bitcoins and Now Holds 158,245 BTC | MicroStrategy
Bitcoin Mining Rig Maker Bitmain Plans to Invest 54 Million in Bankrupt Core Scientific | The Block
Everything to Know About Bitmain’s Latest ASIC Miner S21| Hashrate Index
UTXO Live Oracle: Get Bitcoin Price Without Any Exchange or 3rd Party| No BS Bitcoin
Zerosync’s Header Chain Verifier: Instant Bitcoin Header Chain Verification in Your Browser | No BS Bitcoin
F2Pool Returned 20 BTC Overpayment | No BS Bitcoin
Paxos Identified as 'Fat Finger' Entity in $500,000 Bitcoin Fee Mistake | The Block
Brian Armstrong: Bitcoin Most Important Crypto Asset, Confirms Coinbase Lightning Integration | The Block
Podcasts
TIP 574: Broken Money 1/2 w/ Lyn Alden | Apple Podcasts
Tweets
Arkham Has Now Identified $25B of Coinbase Bitcoin Reserves (~1M BTC) On-Chain. | Twitter
Bitcoin is The Result of Development and Research Spanning Decades | Twitter
Bitcoin vs TCP/IP Adoption | Twitter
Books
A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 | Amazon
Not Gonna Make It Events
Ripple Won’t Go Forward with Acquisition of Fortress Trust | No BS Bitcoin
Three Arrows Capital Co-founder Su Zhu Apprehended in Singapore | The Block
Mark Cuban Loses $860,000 of Crypto to Phishing Attack | The Block
Market Analysis
It is important to note that the price of Bitcoin is highly volatile and can fluctuate significantly in a short period of time. As a result, it is crucial for investors to monitor the market price and other related metrics to make informed investment decisions.
The current price of Bitcoin, which stands at $27,950, represents the current value of a single bitcoin. The market capitalization, which stands at $545,060,830,633, represents the total value of all bitcoins in circulation. The 8.32% increase in the past 30 days in the price of Bitcoin and the market capitalization suggests a positive trend, which can be influenced by various factors such as economic news, geopolitical events, and overall market sentiment.
Support Levels:
$25,307.00: Context - May 2022 Low
$24,039.00: Context - 50 Week Moving Average
Resistance Levels:
$28,051.00: Context - 200 Week Moving Average
$28,839.00: Context - January 2021 Low
$32,271.00: Context - May 2022 High
Volatility provides an understanding of market stability and helps investors make decisions based on their risk tolerance. Market sentiment indicators provide insight into the overall sentiment of the market, influenced by various factors such as news events and market participant opinions.
Currently, the 30-day and 180-day volatility indices are at 1.33 and 1.90 respectively, showing a decrease of 37.64% in the short-term (30-day volatility). The Fear and Greed Index is presently at 50, indicating that the market sentiment is neutral.
On-Chain Analysis:
On-chain analysis provides a fundamental perspective on the health and activity of the Bitcoin network by examining various metrics that provide insight into the underlying health of the network, its level of adoption and usage, and its potential for future growth.
On-chain analysis provides a fundamental perspective on the health and activity of the Bitcoin network. There are 19,501,180 bitcoins currently in circulation. The hash rate, a measure of computational power, currently stands at 409,691,234 ExaHash with a 30-day change of 9.18%. We are seeing a healthy number of daily active addresses at 921,731, though the number of daily transactions has decreased by 23.52%, with a current count of 320,190. The daily total transaction value is also down 44.68%, reaching $2,336,226,679.
Valuation Models:
It's important to note that on-chain valuation models for Bitcoin are still in their early stages of development and should be used with caution. While they have shown promising results in the past, they are not a perfect indicator of future market performance.
Overvalued Levels:
32x Thermocap Multiple: $89,232
3x Realized Price: $60,878
Undervalued Levels:
8x Thermocap Multiple: $22,308
Realized Price: $20,292
The Thermocap multiple measures the value of Bitcoin relative to the total miner revenue, providing insight into the asset's price premium with respect to total revenue received by miners. The Thermocap multiple stands at 10.02 with a 30-day change of 6.92%.
The MVRV ratio, which measures the market value of Bitcoin relative to its realized value, is currently at 1.38. The realized cap is currently at $395,736,881,487 and the realized price for bitcoin is $20,292.97 with a 30-day change of 0.05%.
In conclusion, the value of Bitcoin is volatile, which is why it is crucial to monitor the various metrics that provide insight into the market. The current market scenario is positive, with an 8.32% increase in price over the past 30 days and a 9.18% increase in the hash rate. The number of active addresses and transactions, however, are down, signaling a decrease in on-chain activity. While on-chain valuation models suggest that the market is currently fairly valued.
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